'So Pensions in Europe Will Remain Sustainable - But Will They Remain Adequate?' - An Assessment of the Consequences of the AWG Projections on the Adequacy of Social Security Pensions in Belgium, Italy and Germany

Abstract

We stress that the demographic changes that Europe will face in the coming decades will have profound consequences not only for the sustainability but also for the adequacy of social security schemes, including pensions. Our paper aims at assessing the consequences of the Ageing Working Group projections on the adequacy of social security pensions. We use a microsimulation model and examine three countries: Belgium, Germany and Italy. Adequacy is assessed on the basis of the replacement rate, the redistributive impact of pensions and the different risks of poverty. Pension beneficiaries are compared to wage-earners. The replacement rate will follow different patterns: in Belgium and Germany it will decline until the beginning of the 2030s and recover later, in Italy it will show a continuous decrease. In all three countries income inequality declines from the working age to the retirement age and the risk of poverty among pensioners first increases and then decreases. The pension reforms implemented in the three countries have similar effects on income redistribution and poverty levels; these effects are particularly strong in Italy.