Snowmelt runoff prediction under changing climate in the Himalayan cryosphere: A case of Gilgit River Basin

Abstract

There are serious concerns of rise in temperatures over snowy and glacierized Himalayan region that may eventually affect future river flows of Indus river system. It is therefore necessary to predict snow and glacier melt runoff to manage future water resource of Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The snowmelt runoff model (SRM) coupled with MODIS remote sensing data was employed in this study to predict daily discharges of Gilgit River in the Karakoram Range. The SRM was calibrated successfully and then simulation was made over four years i.e. 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010 achieving coefficient of model efficiency of 0.96, 0.86, 0.9 and 0.94 respectively. The scenarios of precipitation and mean temperature developed from regional climate model PRECIS were used in SRM model to predict future flows of Gilgit River. The increase of 3 °C in mean annual temperature by the end of 21th century may result in increase of 35–40% in Gilgit River flows. The expected increase in the surface runoff from the snow and glacier melt demands better water conservation and management for irrigation and hydel-power generation in the Indus basin in future.