Snowmelt Flood Susceptibility Assessment in Kunlun Mountains Based on the Swin Transformer Deep Learning Method

Abstract

Modeling and assessing the susceptibility of snowmelt floods is critical for flood hazard management. However, the current research on snowmelt flood susceptibility lacks a valid large-scale modeling approach. In this study, a novel high-performance deep learning model called Swin Transformer was used to assess snowmelt susceptibility in the Kunlun Mountains region, where snowmelt floods occur frequently. Support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), deep neural network (DNN) and convolutional neural network (CNN) were also involved in the performance comparison. Eighteen potential conditioning factors were combined with a historical flood inventory to form the database. Apart from the susceptibility assessment, sensitivity analysis was also conducted to reflect the impact of the conditioning factors on the susceptibility of different types of snowmelt floods. The results showed that Swin Transformer achieved the highest score in the model performance test (AUC = 0.99) and successfully identified the relationship between conditioning factors and snowmelt flooding. Elevation and distance to rivers are the most important factors that affect snowmelt flooding in the study region, whereas rainfall and snow water equivalent are the dominant natural factors for mixed and warming types. In addition, the north-central parts of the study area have high susceptibility to snowmelt flooding. The methods and results can provide scientific support for snowmelt flood modeling and disaster management.