Snow load and seasonal variation of earthquake occurrence in Japan

Abstract

Snow load along the western flank of the backbone range of the Japanese Islands causes seasonal crustal deformation. It perturbs the interseismic strain buildup, and may seasonally influence the seismicity in Japan. Intraplate earthquakes in northeastern Japan occur on reverse faults striking parallel with the snow-covered zone. In central and southwestern Japan, they occur on strike-slip faults striking either parallel with, or perpendicular to the snow cover. The snow load enhances compression at these faults, reducing the Coulomb failure stress by a few kPa. This is large enough to modulate the secular stress buildup of a few tens of kPa/yr. Past inland earthquakes with magnitudes ≥7.0 that occurred in regions covered with snow in winter, tend to occur more in spring and summer than in autumn and winter, while those in the snow-free regions do not show such variation. Although its statistical significance is not strong due to limited number of past earthquakes, it suggests that the spring thaw enhances seismicity beneath the snow cover.