Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Based Assessment of Release Zones over Complex Terrain of Siachen Glacier Applying Ramms and Dsr as Active Macroclimatic Factor

Abstract

Glaciers are a critical component of the earth system and environment, both in Polar regions and high altitude terrains. At glaciated terrain, local physiographical and climatological variance causes natural hazard which can lead to local and regional consequences. However, focusing the local complex terrain, the snow avalanches are not easily predictable. RAMMS (Rapid mass movement) application has applied successfully to determine the release areas for snow avalanche dimensions, yet the local microclimatic parameters have not been considered. To assess and identify the susceptible zones on basis of snow avalanche susceptibility, we applied RAMMS-avalanche simulation for avalanche dimension and MTLCIM-XL (Mountain Microclimate) simulator to calculate downward shortwave radiation (DSR) integration as the active microclimatic factor, at target release areas over the Siachen glacier. We obtain high dimension values (above assume a maximum value of pressure 50-80kPa) for the selected release areas from the resultant simulation of snow avalanche maximum dimension. Additional integrative approach base assessment of DSR calculation revealed high values (threshold of daily mean ≥ 350-400W/m2) specifically over three release zones for critical month of April (daily mean based). Prospectively, the conclusive susceptibility analysis depicts the target release areas as potential zones for snow avalanche. In conclusion, the combined approach of RAMMS avalanche simulation with the consideration of local microclimatic parameters show better results; and will need to be considered in future studies of snow avalanche susceptibility and preparedness.