Snow avalanche risk mapping using GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis: the case of Van, Turkey

Abstract

This study presents a Geographic Information System-based (GIS-based) multi-criteria decision analysis for avalanche risk mapping using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method in Van province of Turkey. Essential parameters for avalanche occurrence such as slope, elevation, aspect, curvature, and land cover are used in this study. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model (DEM) is used to generate slope, elevation, aspect, and curvature layers; Corine Land Cover data is used as a land cover map, and Landsat 8 OLI satellite imagery was used to extract snow-covered areas. The GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was used to assess the areas’ risk susceptibility; thus, 29% of the study area is classified as having a very low risk, 46% low risk, 18% moderate risk, 5% high risk, and 2% very high risk. The resulting avalanche risk map will create a clear view of the riskiest areas. It can be useful for taking emergency measures in the area and artificially trigger avalanches before they naturally start to form.