Smart hydropower management: utilizing machine learning and deep learning method to enhance dam’s energy generation efficiency

Abstract

AbstractRenewable energy sources and hydroelectric power generation in large parts of the electricity market are crucial as environmental pollution worsens . Utilizing meteorological data from the region, where the Hirfanlı Dam is located, this study employs machine learning (ML) and introduces a novel hybrid Genetic Grey Wolf Optimizer (GGW0)-based Convolutional Neural Network/Recurrent Neural Network (CNN/RNN) regression technique to predict hydroelectric power production (PP). In the first section of the study, various ML techniques SVR (Support Vector Regression), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), RFR (Random Forest Regression), ANN (Artificial Neural Networks) and WKNNR (Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor) are presented with the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method and the minimum–maximum method in the normalization of the features. A novel GGWO and CNN/RNN model)-Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) regression technique is introduced in the second section. GGWO is used to select features, while the proposed CNN/RNN-LSTM model is employed for feature extraction and prediction of PP. The study demonstrates that the ELM algorithm in Method I outperforms other ML models, achieving a correlation coefficient (r) of 0.977 and the mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.4 with the best feature subset. Additionally, the proposed CNN/RNN hybrid model in Method II yields even better results, with r and MAE values of 0.9802 and 0.314, respectively. The research contributes to the field of renewable energy prediction, and the results can aid in efficient decision making for electricity generation and resource management.