Smallholders' coping mechanisms with wheat rust epidemics: Lessons from Ethiopia.

Moti Jaleta,Olaf Erenstein,Bekele Abeyo,Dave Hodson,Chilot Yirga,Tahirou Abdoulaye

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0219327

Abstract

Crops are variously susceptible to biotic stresses–something expected to increase under climate change. In the case of staple crops, this potentially undermines household and national food security. We examine recent wheat rust epidemics and smallholders’ coping mechanisms in Ethiopia as a case study. Wheat is a major food crop in Ethiopia widely grown by smallholders. In 2010/11 a yellow rust epidemic affected over one-third of the national wheat area. Two waves of nationally representative household level panel data collected for the preceding wheat season (2009/10) and three years after (2013/14) the occurrence of the epidemic allow us to analyze the different coping mechanisms farmers used in response. Apart from using fungicides as ex-post coping mechanism, increasing wheat area under yellow rust resistant varieties, increasing diversity of wheat varieties grown, or a combination of these strategies were the main ex-ante coping mechanisms farmers had taken in reducing the potential effects of rust re-occurrence. Large-scale dis-adoption of highly susceptible varieties and replacement with new, rust resistant varieties was observed subsequent to the 2010/11 epidemic. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to identify the key factors associated with smallholder ex-ante coping strategies. Household characteristics, level of specialization in wheat and access to improved wheat seed were the major factors that explained observed choices. There was 29–41% yield advantage in increasing wheat area to the new, resistant varieties even under normal seasons with minimum rust occurrence in the field. Continuous varietal development in responding to emerging new rust races and supporting the deployment of newly released resistant varieties could help smallholders in dealing with rust challenges and maintaining improved yields in the rust-prone environments of Ethiopia. Given the global importance of both wheat and yellow rust and climate change dynamics study findings have relevance to other regions.

Highlights

Food security is a priority agenda for most developing nations across the world
We examine Ethiopia’s recent wheat rust epidemics and smallholders’ coping mechanisms as a case study
After the wheat yellow rust epidemic in the 2010/11 cropping season, the government and non-government organizations, seed enterprises and other development supporters increased the supply of resistant varieties ( Digalu, Kakaba and Danda’a varieties) to the major rust affected areas

Summary

Introduction

Food security is a priority agenda for most developing nations across the world. Though most of these countries strive to attain self-sufficiency in main staple crops, there are several challenges hampering the growth of agricultural production and productivity. This paper takes an important global food staple crop (wheat) and a globally important fungal disease (wheat yellow rust) and uses Ethiopia as a case study to empirically examine smallholders’ ex-ante coping mechanisms in the context of recent wheat rust epidemics. Controlling or reducing the adverse effects of crop diseases on production needs to use combinations of technologies and management practices [31] Data used in this analysis were collected in 2010 and 2014 for the preceding 2009/10 and 2013/14 wheat production seasons, respectively. The 2013/14 data allow us to assess whether rust affected farmers reverted to the susceptible but preferred varieties they used to grow, or shifted to the new, resistant varieties, mixed the two coping strategies, or adopted other coping mechanisms like spraying of fungicides where rust occurred.

H3 M1 M2 SH1 SA2 SH2 SM2 Total

Results and discussion

Conclusions and implications