Abstract
The expanding distribution of African swine fever (ASF) is threatening the pig industry worldwide. Most outbreaks occur in backyard and small-scale herds, where poor farmers often attempt to limit the disease’s economic consequences by the emergency sale of their pigs. The risk of African swine fever virus (ASFV) release via this emergency sale was investigated. Simulation modeling was used to study ASFV transmission in backyard and small-scale farms as well as the emergency sale of pigs, and the potential impact of improving farmers and traders’ clinical diagnosis ability–its timeliness and/or accuracy–was assessed. The risk of ASFV release was shown to be high, and improving farmers’ clinical diagnosis ability does not appear sufficient to effectively reduce this risk. Estimates obtained also showed that the distribution of herd size within the backyard and small-scale sectors influences the relative contribution of these farms to the risk of release of infected pigs. These findings can inform surveillance and control programs.
Highlights
I informed by the clinical diagnosis made by farmers and traders
As ASFV spreads within a pig herd, infected pigs develop clinical signs, which may result in the detection of the disease by the farmer and the sale of animals in which signs of disease have not been noticed
The risk of ASFV release via emergency sale was investigated by simulating an African swine fever (ASF) outbreak in a small-scale farm where the farmer’s behavior may vary
Summary
The ability to diagnose ASF in pigs depends on farmers’ awareness of the disease, the clinical signs shown by affected pigs, and the local context (i.e. farmers may be more likely to identify or perceive clinical signs if there are ASF outbreaks in the area). Due to variation in the infection’s incubation and latent periods, some of the pigs with no sign of disease may be infected and even infectious. The objective of this study was to use mathematical modeling to estimate the risk of release of ASF from backyard and small-scale farms via the emergency sale of ASFV infected pigs with undetected clinical signs ( known as “silent release”) and to assess the potential impact of improving the farmers and traders’ clinical diagnosis ability on this risk.
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