Small Island States in Indian and Atlantic Oceans: Vulnerability to Climate Change and Strategies for Adaptation

Abstract

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are among the world’s nations that are most vulnerable to climate change. SIDS have neither the resources nor the expertise to effectively evaluate the risks associated with climate change, nor the ability to adapt to potential changes. Compared to islands in the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea, SIDS in the Indian Ocean and eastern Atlantic Ocean off of the west coast of Africa are among the poorest and least studied of the SIDS. In this United Nations supported study, five Indian Ocean SIDS (Comoros, Madagascar, Mauritius, Seychelles, and Maldives) and two Atlantic Ocean SIDS (Cape Verde, and the Republic of Sao Tome & Principe) are evaluated for their vulnerability to climate change, with an emphasis on impacts on water resources and coastal zone resources. Due to significant differences between the SIDS studied in terms of size, topography, geology, precipitation, population density, storm patterns and intensities, relative sea level rise, indicators of wealth (such as GDP/capita), and other island characteristics, each SIDS faces its own unique challenges. This paper describes the major findings of the study. One important finding is that relative sea level rise at present appears most significant on one of the SIDS (Maldives), and a number of other SIDS appear to be emerging slightly at a rate high enough to presently offset the effects of global sea level rise. However, analysis shows that at sometime during the 21 st century, should sea level rise accelerate as climate models now suggest, that all the SIDS will become vulnerable to sea level change. Further, an existing stress on most of the SIDS is the human population density and tourism that have increased dramatically at most SIDS over the past several decades. Tourism provides both economic benefits to the islands, while at the same time tourists consume resources at rates typically far in excess of the native population. Therefore, stresses on water resources and the coastal zone due to human population are factored into the climate change stresses that are projected to increase over this century. Finally the paper describes capacity building efforts and strategies for adaptation that are intended to bring attention, resources, and expertise to the aid of the SIDS. One vehicle to do this is through the development of an Internet portal, eventually to be hosted and maintained by one of the SIDS.