Abstract
This paper presents a method using small data to enhance maintenance efficiency, addressing the limitations of solely qualitative maintenance records. It involves the use of a model based on the Bayesian–Weibull first-order reliability method (BW-FORM) for component analysis and a stochastic analytic hierarchy process for system-level assessment, including fault-tree analysis and reliability-centered maintenance for prioritizing tasks. Key components such as “gate body” and “wire rope” significantly affect system reliability, whereas “rusted crane base” and “bolt on base falling” are the top maintenance priorities. The Mudan Reservoir case study validates this approach, with the life expectation estimated using the BW-FORM aligning well with expert predictions.
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