Small area estimation with application to households with energy-saving lamps estimates in Java Island, Indonesia

Abstract

An electricity outage hit Jakarta and some provinces on Java Island on Sunday, August 4, 2019. This blackout was the worst in many years. However, it gives positive effect that many people realize the importance of energy-saving. Since 2016, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has initiated the 10-percent Energy Saving National Movement in an effort to change the wasteful behavior of the Indonesian people in consuming energy. One effort to support this national movement is by using energy-saving lamps such as compact fluorescents (CFLs) and light-emitting-diodes (LEDs). CFLs and LEDs last longer and are significantly more efficient than incandescent lamps (ILs). In 2017, 92.49 percent of households in Indonesia stated that they use energy-saving lamps in their homes. However, only 70.02 percent of households stated to use energy saving lamps in all lamps installed in their homes. This indicator is calculated from the 2017 national socio economic survey-social resilience module (SSN17.HANSOS). However the SSN17.HANSOS can provide data only at the national and province levels owing to insufficient sample size. Small Area Estimation (SAE) method overcomes this problem and can produce reliable estimates for small domains. Due to the growing need for reliable and accurate estimates at district level, therefore this study aims to estimate the percentage of household that use energy-saving lamps in all lamps installed in their homes by district in Java Island using a SAE method. The result of the study can be used by local government for identifying districts in which the energy-saving programs need to be strengthened and monitoring improved.