Abstract

Research using Hierarchical Bayes (HB) applied to Small Area Estimation (SAE) was conducted with the aim to estimate the proportion of halal tourism destination in West Lombok Regency. The development of halal taourism object in West Lombok that has been done by the Departement of Culture and Tourism, has not been fully able to do direct estimation on a small area, such as at the sub-district level. One way of obtaining estimation data up to the sub-district level is by increasing the sample size. However, increasing the sample size will cost time and money. Therefore, SAE method can be used to solve the poblem of data optimization. Furthermore, the HB method is used in the process of finding the expected alleged value. The prediction process was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) by applying the conditional Gibbs Algorithm of Metropolis-Hasting. Indirect modeling using HB method on SAE is based on the Fay-Herriot model for the area level with the help of supporting variables. The estimation results were then compared with the direct estimates with the value of the variance statistic as a benchmark. The results showed that the estimation using HB gave in a smaller average of variance value score of 0.021, compared with direct estimates with an average of variance value of 0.042. This showed that indirect estimation using HB method gave better result than using direct estimation method.

Highlights

  • Research using Hierarchical Bayes (HB) applied to Small Area Estimation (SAE) was conducted with the aim to estimate the proportion of halal tourism destination in West Lombok Regency

  • The results showed that the estimation using HB gave in a smaller average of variance value score of 0.021, compared with direct estimates with an average of variance value of 0.042

  • Pendekatan Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation (HB SAE) dalam Mengestimasi Angka Melek Huruf Kecamatan di Kabupaten Indramayu, Prosiding Seminar Nasional Statistika IV, Universitas Padjadjaran

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Summary

Pendahuluan

Wisata halal merupakan trend baru dalam dunia pariwisata saat ini, hal tersebut tentunya menjadi sebuah peluang besar yang memudahkan suatu wilayah untuk terus melakukan pengembangan wisata halal. Salah satunya yaitu dengan mengestimasi (memperkirakan) proporsi destinasi objek wisata halal, khususnya pada kecamatan di Kabupaten Lombok Barat. Metode estimasi area kecil (small area estimation) berbasis bayes seperti HB tepat untuk menduga variabel tersebut. Berdasarkan uraian di atas, maka dalam dilakukan penerapan metode HB pada pendugaan proporsi destinasi objek wisata halal level area kecil, yaitu kecamatan di Kabupaten Lombok Barat. SAE menjadi sangat penting dalam analisis data survei karena adanya peningkatan permintaan untuk menghasilkan dugaan parameter yang cukup akurat dengan ukuran contoh kecil. Pendugaan tidak langsung pada area kecil pada dasarnya bersifat meminjam kekuatan atau memanfaatkan variabelvariabel pendukung dalam menduga parameter. Pendugaan tidak langsung berbasis pada model, sehingga memerlukan adanya pemodelan yang tepat agar diperoleh estimasi yang lebih akurat dan reliabel (Sadik, 2009)

Model Berbasis Level Area
Dihitung peluang penerimaan:
Metodologi
Pendugaan Langsung
Pemilihan Variabel Pendukung
Pendugaan Tidak Langsung dengan Metode HB
Kesimpulan
Full Text
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