Small antral follicle count (2–5 mm) and ovarian volume for prediction of pregnancy in in vitro fertilization cycles

Abstract

Aims. To assess the value of antral follicle count (AFC) and other parameters as predictors of pregnancy in in vitro fertilization (IVF).Methods. In a cohort study, unselected consecutive women in IVF treatment were evaluated. Pretreatment parameters included AFC (subpopulations of small (2–5 mm) and large (5–10 mm) AFC), ovarian volume, and ovarian stroma Doppler indices.Results. The study included 115 women of whom 38 (33%) were pregnant. Total AFC was significantly higher in the pregnant than in the non-pregnant group (13.7 ± 5.8 vs. 11.3 ± 5.3, p = 0.034). On receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the pretreatment variables that were significantly associated with pregnancy were small AFC (2–5 mm), total AFC, and ovarian volume/AFC ratio. Women with a positive score (total AFC >15; small AFC (2–5 mm) >10; ovarian volume in mm3/AFC, <1400), had a significantly higher number of retrieved oocytes and a higher pregnancy rate than women with a negative score (12.1 ± 5.1 vs. 8.7 ± 5.0, p = 0.027 and 58.3% vs. 30.1%, p = 0.049, respectively). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, total AFC was the only significant and independent predictor of pregnancy (p = 0.034).Conclusion. Pretreatment small AFC and ovarian volume may identify women with a higher probability to achieve pregnancy in IVF.