Slowing down or returning to normal? Life expectancy improvements in Britain compared to five large European countries before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Abstract

Life expectancy is an important summary measure of population health. In the absence of a significant event like war or disease outbreak, trends should, and historically have, increase over time, albeit with some fluctuations. Data were extracted from the human mortality database for life expectancy at birth and age 65 years from 1980 to the latest available year for England & Wales, Scotland (Great Britain), France, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Germany. It is well established that life expectancy improvements in Great Britain have stalled in recent years, and that a similar stalling was seen in other high-income countries during the mid-2010s. The significance and causes of the slowdown in improvement in life expectancy in Britain are disputed. First, was Britain's slowdown in progress in life expectancy in the 2010s a deviation 'from' earlier sustained improvements or simply returning to normal (slower) improvement rates following fastergains in the 2000s? Second, did other European countries have slowdowns comparable to that in Britain? Life expectancy, as a summary measure, conceals inequalities. Other measures, such as lifespan disparity, complement it in understanding changing trends. While annual fluctuations in life expectancy are expected, continued stalls should raise concern. The three British nations examined were the only ones among these European countries to experience stalling of life expectancy gains in both sexes. While it is clear that Britain is making less progress in health than similar countries, more research is needed to explain why.