Slope mass movements on rocky sea-cliffs: A power-law distributed natural hazard on the Barlavento Coast, Algarve, Portugal

Abstract

The coast of the Central Algarve, Portugal, is dominated by sea-cliffs, cut on Miocene calcarenites; here, the main coastal geologic hazards result from the conflict between human occupation and sea-cliff recession. The evolution of this rocky coast occurs through an intermittent and discontinuous series of slope mass movements, along a 46 km cliff front. For the last 30 years, the increase of tourism occupation has amplified the risks to both people and buildings. In the last decade we have seen several accidents caused by cliff failure, which killed or wounded people and destroyed several buildings. The definition of buffer zones limited by hazard lines parallel to the cliff edge, where land use is restricted, is a widely used and effective preventive measure for mitigating risk. Rocky coasts typically show a slow cliff evolution. The process of gathering statistically significant field inventories of mass movements is, thus, very long. Although mass movement catalogues provide fundamental information on sea cliff evolution patterns and are an outstanding tool in hazard assessment, published data sets are still rare. In this work, we use two inventories of mass movement width, recorded on sea cliffs cut on Miocene calcarenites: a nine year long continuous field inventory (1995–2004) with 140 recorded events, and a 44 year long catalogue based on comparative analysis of aerial photographs (1947–1991), that includes 177 events. The cumulative frequency-width distributions of both data sets fit, above a critical width value corresponding to the threshold of full completeness of the inventories, to power-law distributions. The knowledge of the limits of the catalogues enabled the construction of a 53 year long record inventory over the range of mean width ⩾3 m ( n = 167 events) and maximum width ⩾4 m ( n = 155 events). The data assembled corresponds to a partial series and was converted to a return period-size distribution. Both return period-width distributions (mean width and maximum width) are also power-law distributions. Equations of return period-width distributions give the width of hazard lines corresponding to the width of mass movement, in which return period equals the period that hazard line is referred to.