Slavery, Home Ownership, and Contemporary Perinatal Outcomes in the Southeast: A Test of Mediation and Moderation.

Abstract

To estimate the effect of geographic variation in historic slavery on perinatal outcomes [chronic hypertension, hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP), very preterm birth (VPTB), or very low birth weight birth (VLBW)] among Black people living in states where slavery was legal in 1860 and test mediation by Black homeownership. We linked data from the 1860 census (the proportion of enslaved residents) to natality data on outcomes (2013-2021) using resident county. The percent of Black residents in a county who owned their home was a potential mediator. We fit log binomial models to estimate risk ratios (RRs) representing total and controlled direct effects (accounting for Black homeownership) of proportion enslaved on outcomes, accounting for potential confounding using marginal structural models. Among 2,443,198 included births, 8.8% (213,829) experienced HDP, 4.1% (100,549) chronic hypertension, 3.3% (81,072) VPTB, and 2.6% (62,538) VLBW. There was an increase in chronic hypertension and VPTB risk, but not HDP or VLBW, in counties with a 10% greater proportion enslaved in 1860 [adjusted RR: 1.06, 95% CI: (1.02, 1.1); 1.02 (1.00, 1.05); 1.00 (0.98, 1.02); 1.01 (1.00, 1.03)]. There was not evidence of mediation by Black homeownership. Historic slavery remains relevant for perinatal health.