Abstract
The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. Advances in climate modelling have enabled us to make useful predictions of the seasonal Asian summer monsoon up to approximately half a year ahead, but long-range predictions remain challenging. Here, using a 52-member large ensemble hindcast experiment spanning 1980–2016, we show that a state-of-the-art climate model can predict the Asian summer monsoon and associated summer tropical cyclone activity more than one year ahead. The key to this long-range prediction is successfully simulating El Niño-Southern Oscillation evolution and realistically representing the subsequent atmosphere–ocean response in the Indian Ocean–western North Pacific in the second boreal summer of the prediction. A large ensemble size is also important for achieving a useful prediction skill, with a margin for further improvement by an even larger ensemble.
Highlights
The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society
We focused on the prediction skill for the second-year boreal summer (June–August with a 13-month lead) against historical observations and reanalysis (Methods)
JMA/MRI-CPS2 skilfully predicts key indices representing the interannual variability of the Indo-western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon and ENSO27 1 year ahead (Fig. 1; see Methods for the index definitions)
Summary
The interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon has significant impacts on Asian society. JMA/MRI-CPS2 skilfully predicts key indices representing the interannual variability of the Indo-WNP monsoon and ENSO27 1 year ahead (Fig. 1; see Methods for the index definitions).
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