Skepticism

Abstract

Accepting probabilistic knowledge gives rise to a difficult puzzle: how can Smith know that it is at least .6 likely that Jones smokes, when he is happy to admit that there is a significant chance that this belief will turn out to be wrong? This apparently simple question actually has several skeptical arguments mixed up in it. This chapter distinguishes four such arguments and defends different anti-skeptical responses for each. Taken together, these responses support a bright conclusion. As long as some probabilistic beliefs can be true, and some true beliefs can be knowledge, some probabilistic beliefs can be knowledge. The chapter discusses the claim that probabilistic contents can be true at worlds in some deflationary sense, and also responds to the worry that this claim effaces the distinction between propositional and probabilistic contents.