Situational Factors Affecting Judgments of Future Performance

Abstract

The present study investigated factors affecting the quality of judgments of future performance. Research participants were familiarized with the performance task under varying conditions of monetary rewards, perceived internal control over performance, and private/public disclosure of the judgments. Judgments of future performance and confidence were highest when individuals perceived high levels of internal control and when monetary rewards (both contingent and noncontingent) were present. Task persistence was greatest under the conditions of contingent rewards and high perceived internal control, however, actual performance was not affected by either of these factors. Judgment accuracy and judgment–performance relations also varied across conditions. Specifically, individuals overestimated their future performance levels the least when perceived internal control was low and when no monetary rewards were involved. The judgment–performance relation was the strongest with no monetary rewards, high perceived internal control, and public disclosure of the judgments. Satisfaction with performance on the almanac task was negatively related to the degree to which judgments of future performance exceeded actual performance levels. Results are discussed via a theoretical framework that contrasts judgments of future performance and self-set goals.