Abstract
Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.
Highlights
Designating protected areas to safeguard biodiversity is a cornerstone of species conservation (Hambler, 2004)
1https://github.com/AlkeVoskamp/IBA_analysis_BL_Audubon.git (GAM = 0.97 ± 0.03, generalized boosted regression models (GBM) = 0.96 ± 0.03, generalized linear models (GLM) = 0.96 ± 0.03, and random forest models (RF) = 0.97 ± 0.03) as well as across the species of conservation concern (GAM = 0.97 ± 0.03, GBM = 0.96 ± 0.04, GLM = 0.95 ± 0.03, and RF = 0.97 ± 0.03). 128 species had to be excluded from the analysis due to poor model fit (AUC < 0.7), of which 29 were species of conservation concern
We projected widespread declines in the richness of species of conservation concern within grid cells across the Caribbean, and Central and South America, with the largest declines projected in the southern Amazon region (Figure 1)
Summary
Designating protected areas to safeguard biodiversity is a cornerstone of species conservation (Hambler, 2004). Climate driven shifts in species’ distributions may alter the proportion of a species’ range covered by protected areas (Worboys et al, 2006; Hannah, 2008). The static nature of protected area networks means that they are likely to become less effective in safeguarding the species they were established to protect if these alter their ranges under climate change (Araújo et al, 2004; Avalos and Hernández, 2015). Likely to increase in their importance, becoming focal points for colonisation of species outside their current range and facilitating species’ range shifts or expansions (Thomas et al, 2012; Hiley et al, 2013; Gillingham et al, 2015)
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