Site- and gender-specific time trend analyses of the incidence of skin melanomas in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) including 19 351 cases

Abstract

Over the past few decades, the incidence of skin melanoma has been rising in almost all developed countries. We examined trends in the incidence of skin melanoma in the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) from 1961 to 1989. Incidence rates per 100 000 person years were age-adjusted (World Standard Population). We estimated the effects of age, period, and cohort on the overall and site-specific incidence of skin melanoma. From 1961 to 1989, the incidence of melanoma increased from 1.8 to 5.0 for males and from 1.8 to 5.4 per 100 000 for females. Incidence was best explained by age, cohort and period effects. Incidence trends by anatomical site showed varying degrees of increases with the exception of melanomas of the eyelid that showed a decrease over time. Cohort effects differed by gender and anatomical site indicating that the circumstances leading to increasing site-specific incidences may have come into effect earlier for some sites than those for other sites.