SIR Epidemics with State-Dependent Costs and ICU Constraints: A Hamilton–Jacobi Verification Argument and Dual LP Algorithms

Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold. On one hand, we strive to give a simpler proof of the optimality of greedy controls when the cost of interventions is control-affine and the dynamics follow a state-constrained controlled SIR model. This is achieved using the Hamilton–Jacobi characterization of the value function, via the verification argument and explicit trajectory-based computations. Aside from providing an alternative to the Pontryagin complex arguments in Avram et al. (Appl Math Comput 418:126816, 2022) (see also Avram et al. in Appl Math Comput 423:127012, 2022), this method allows one to consider more general classes of costs; in particular state-dependent ones. On the other hand, the paper is completed by linear programming methods allowing one to deal with possibly discontinuous costs. In particular, we propose a brief exposition of classes of linearized dynamic programming principles based on our previous work and ensuing dual linear programming algorithms. We emphasize the particularities of our state space and possible generations of forward scenarios using the description of reachable sets.