Sino-American Competition in Southeast Asia

Abstract

This chapter explains that the global competition between the United States and China is increasingly centered in Southeast Asia, and the region will be considerably impacted by the US-China rivalry—much more than most ASEAN states recognize or care to admit. The Sino-American rivalry in Southeast Asia is thus going to be an epic challenge for regional governments (and ASEAN itself) to maneuver effectively between the two major powers, maintain their independence of action, and protect their national sovereignty. The chapter then looks at the spectrum of ASEAN states’ relations with the United States and China. It also studies how both major powers bring certain comparative advantages and disadvantages to their interactions with different Southeast Asian countries. While the Sino-American competition in Southeast Asia is increasingly and comprehensively competitive, it remains fluid and can develop differently in the future. The chapter concludes by assessing the future of the region’s ties with the major powers, considering four distinct possibilities.