Sino-Soviet Relations and the Politics of Oil

Abstract

CHINA, WHICH WAS once dependent on Soviet oil supplies, is being transformed into a regional oil power in East Asia and it is becoming a successful rival of the Soviet Union in the game of Asian oil politics. Soviet economic warfare encouraged the Chinese drive toward oil self-sufficiency and China emerged as a crucial factor affecting Japanese and American negotiations with the Soviet Union on Siberian oil development. China has strategic objections to the construction of the Tiumen oil pipeline close to its own border and its increasing sales of oil to Japan have been aimed at deterring Tokyo's involvement in any Siberian oil investment deal. While China's oil exports to Japan and other Asian states are rising, the Soviet Union is confronted with a growing oil squeeze due to its huge oil export commitments to East European states. Oil sales to non-communist states even declined in 1974 and, during the next decade, the Soviet Union's ability to be a major competitive force in Asian oil markets will be seriously strained. An evaluation of the dynamics of East Asian oil politics hinges on the responses to several crucial questions. Why has Japan decided to buy large quantities of oil from China and only small amounts from the Soviet Union? To what extent will China be able to expand its oil export capability? What strategic role does oil play in the power adversary relationship between the Soviet Union and China? How do American policies toward the major East Asian states affect the course of Sino-Soviet oil politics? The answers to these questions are essential to an understanding of superpower oil relations in East Asia and could also provide some insight into the prospects for peace in the area. The Soviet Union supplied small quantities of oil products to China before the 1949 communist takeover but large-scale deliveries were initiated shortly thereafter. China soon became the largest recipient of Soviet crude oil and oil products. It bought mostly oil products, rather than crude, because of its limited refinery capacity. Soviet sales