Singular secular Kuznets-like period realized amid industrial transformation in US FDA medical devices: a perspective on growth from 1976 to 2020

Abstract

ABSTRACT Introduction Since inception, the United States (US) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has kept a robust record of regulated medical devices (MDs). Based on these data, can we gain insight into the innovation dynamics of the industry, including the potential for industrial transformation?. Areas Covered Using premarket notifications (PMNs) and approvals (PMAs) data, it is shown that from 1976 to 2020 the total composite (PMN+PMA) metric follows a single secular period: 20.5 years (applications – peak-to-peak: 1992–2012; trough: 2002) and 26.5 years (registrations – peak-to-peak: 1992–2019; trough: 2003), with a peak-to-trough relative percentage difference of 24% and 28%, respectively. Importantly, PMNs and PMAs independently present as an inverse structure. Expert Opinion The evidence suggests that MD innovation is driven by a singular secular Kuznets-like cyclic phenomenon (independent of economic crises) derived from a fundamental shift from simple (PMNs) to complex (PMAs) MDs. Portentously, while the COVID-19 crisis may not affect the overriding dynamic, the anticipated yet significant (~25%) MD innovation drop may be potentially attenuated with attentive measures by MD stakeholders. Limitations of this approach and further thoughts complete this perspective.