Single-FiO2 lung modelling with machine learning: a computer simulation incorporating volumetric capnography

Abstract

We investigated whether machine learning (ML) analysis of ICU monitoring data incorporating volumetric capnography measurements of mean alveolar PCO2 can partition venous admixture (VenAd) into its shunt and low V/Q components without manipulating the inspired oxygen fraction (FiO2). From a 21-compartment ventilation / perfusion (V/Q) model of pulmonary blood flow we generated blood gas and mean alveolar PCO2 data in simulated scenarios with shunt values from 7.3% to 36.5% and a range of FiO2 settings, indirect calorimetry and cardiac output measurements and acid- base and hemoglobin oxygen affinity conditions. A ‘deep learning’ ML application, trained and validated solely on single FiO2 bedside monitoring data from 14,736 scenarios, then recovered shunt values in 500 test scenarios with true shunt values ‘held back’. ML shunt estimates versus true values (n = 500) produced a linear regression model with slope = 0.987, intercept = -0.001 and R2 = 0.999. Kernel density estimate and error plots confirmed close agreement. With corresponding VenAd values calculated from the same bedside data, low V/Q flow can be reported as VenAd—shunt. ML analysis of blood gas, indirect calorimetry, volumetric capnography and cardiac output measurements can quantify pulmonary oxygenation deficits as percentage shunt flow (V/Q = 0) versus percentage low V/Q flow (V/Q > 0). High fidelity reports are possible from analysis of data collected solely at the operating FiO2.