Simultaneous optimal control of directional missed discovery rates in data stream diagnosis

Abstract

High-dimensional data streams are ubiquitous in modern manufacturing, due to their ability to provide valuable information about the industrial system’s performance on a real-time basis. If a shift occurs in a production process, fault diagnosis based on the data streams is of critical importance for identifying the root cause. Existing methods have largely focused on controlling the total missed discovery rate without distinguishing missed signals for positive versus negative components of the shift vector. In practice, however, losses incurred from the two directional shifts can differ substantially, so it is desirable to constrain the proportions of missed signals for positive and negative components at two distinctive levels. In this article, we propose a fault classification procedure that controls the two proportions separately. By formulating the problem as Lagrangian multiplier optimization, we show that the proposed procedure is optimal in the sense that it minimizes the expected number of false discoveries. We also suggest an iterative adjustment algorithm that converges to the optimal Lagrangian parameters. The asymptotic optimality for the data-driven version of our procedure is also established. Theoretical justification and numerical comparison with state-of-the-art methods show that the proposed procedure works well in applications.