Abstract
The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is used to simulate the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) over the 2011–2020 winter. The 45 day hindcasts are made with 30 km horizontal resolution and constructed to a time-lagged ensemble system. The climatology, the major modes of EAWM variability, and the blocking activities are examined. The evaluation results reveal that MPAS can simulate the climatologic characteristics of EAWM reasonably, with a surface cold bias of 4% and a positive rainfall bias of 9% over East Asia. MPAS can perform skillfully in the forecasts of surface temperature probability of East Asia and is more reliable in detecting below normal and above normal events. The features that influence the EAWM variability are also analyzed. MPAS simulates reasonably in the occurrence frequency of blocking high in both locations and duration time. The empirical orthogonal function analysis also shows that MPAS can capture the two major modes of the surface temperature of EAWM. On the other hand, it is also found that a biased sea surface temperature may modify the circulations over the Western Pacific and affect the simulated occurrence frequency of cold events near Taiwan during winter.
Highlights
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the dominant circulation system spanning from the tropics to subpolar regions and deeply influences the weather and climate of the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean in winter
Cold surge is one of the notable high-impact weather states that relates to the EAWM over East Asia during winter
The East Asian trough near the coast of East Asia and a strong East Asian westerly jet located in southern Japan are the most prominent features in the mid and upper troposphere (Figure 2a)
Summary
The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) is the dominant circulation system spanning from the tropics to subpolar regions and deeply influences the weather and climate of the Eurasian continent and the Pacific Ocean in winter. Two major modes of surface temperature are found to contribute to the interannual variability of EAWM These two modes represent the Siberian cold air intruding into East Asia with a northern pathway or a southern pathway [4]. Cold surge is one of the notable high-impact weather states that relates to the EAWM over East Asia during winter. Many studies have shown that MPAS is capable of predicting synoptic or mesoscale events through day 7 and may capture the mean state for extended weather forecasts. Many s3tuodf 2ie2s have shown that MPAS is capable of predicting synoptic or mesoscale events through day 7 and may capture the mean state for extended weather forecasts. Curves close to the diagonal representing the predicted probabilities are more reliable corresponding to the observed frequencies
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