Simulation-Optimization Modeling for Conjunctive Use Management under Hydrological Uncertainty

Abstract

The canal water supply, which is the only source of irrigation, in the rice-dominated cropping system of the Hirakud canal command (eastern India) is able to meet only 54 % of the irrigation demand at 90 % probability of exceedance. Hence, considering groundwater as the supplemental source of irrigation, conjunctive use management study by combined simulation-optimization modelling was undertaken in order to predict the maximum permissible groundwater pumpage from the command area. Further, optimal land and water resources allocation model was developed to determine the optimal cropping pattern for maximizing net annual return. The modelling results suggested that 2.0 and 2.3 million m3 of groundwater can be pumped from the bottom aquifer during monsoon and non-monsoon seasons, respectively, at 90 % probability of exceedance of rainfall and canal water availability (PERC). Optimal cropping patterns and pumping strategies can lead to about 51.3–12.5 % increase in net annual return from the area at 10–90 % PERC. The sensitivity analysis of the model indicates that the variation in the market price of crops has very high influence on the optimal solution followed by the cost of cultivation and cultivable area. Finally, different future scenarios of land and water use were formulated for the command area. The adoption of optimal cropping patterns and optimal pumping strategies is strongly recommended for sustainable management of available land and water resources of the canal command under hydrological uncertainties.