Abstract
In a hurricane or typhoon-prone region, the prediction of tropical cyclone occurrences is an essential element in structural reliability studies. The uncertainty of tropical cyclone generated extreme winds that affect tall structures is currently being undertaken at the University of Hawaii at Manoa. In order to understand the long-range behavior and the patterns of tropical cyclone occurrences, a Monte Carlo method-based simulation technique is investigated. In this approach, the probability distributions of the interarrival time between occurrences of tropical cyclones, the probability distributions of the arrival times of the first as well as the last tropical cyclones of each typhoon season, and the probability distributions of the durations of typhoon seasons are the basic elements in this simulation process. An application of the approach to Shanghai, China data is illustrated.
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