Simulation studies of Senegalese Grasshopper ecosystem interactions II: the role of egg pod predators and birds

Abstract

We present a simulation study of the role of birds and egg pod predators in the population dynamics of the Senegalese grasshopper. The model was an energetics-driven ecosystem model that included a natural Sahelian grass, millet, grasshoppers, the egg pod predators bombyliidae and Tenebrionidae, and 24 species of birds that prey on grasshopper nymphs and adults. The model simulated the rain-dependent dynamics and migration along a five-location south–north transect in Niger and Senegal, and the main outputs were the grasshopper pressure on the transect, measured as accumulated transect grasshopper days, and the density of eggs ready to emerge the following rainy season. The model was calibrated using observations from transects in Niger (2003, 2004) and Senegal (2004). When input data from Niger 2003 and 2004 were applied, simulated reductions in grasshopper pressure during the rainy season from egg pod predators and birds, respectively, were within a range of 18–25%, but taken together the overall reduction in grasshopper pressure ranged between 35 and 37%. Using input from Senegal (2004) the birds accounted for reductions of around 25%. When the impact of the natural enemies was measured in terms of reduction in the density of eggs hatching the following year, the simulated impact of the egg pod predators ranged between 45 and 83% and that of the birds between 33 and 39%, and the two groups combined caused reductions between 60 and 75%. Analyses of the sensitivity to the bird species, added one by one, showed ‘predator saturation’ along the Niger transects (with low grasshopper density) but not along the Senegal transect. For Niger, the sensitivity analyses revealed Cattle Egret, Grey-headed Sparrow, Chestnut-bellied Starling, Buffalo Weaver, Sudan Golden Sparrow, Grey Hornbill, Red-billed Hornbill and Abyssinian Roller to be the most important individual species. For Senegal the top-five individual bird species were Village Weaver, Buffalo Weaver, Savile's Bustard, Grey-headed Sparrow and Abyssinian Roller.