Simulation of wood pole replacement rate and its application to life cycle economy studies

Abstract

The paper describes a methodology for simulating the expected wood pole replacement rate as a function of time, considering the statistical nature of pole strength and climatic loads (wind, ice). The method considers replacement of weak poles by maintenance, and replacement of failed (broken) poles due to climatic stresses. It is demonstrated how the rate of replacement and the associated costs depend on the rate of decay for pole strength, the strategy for pole replacement, and uncertainties in the method used for assessing the pole strength. The method also simulates the standard deviation of the replacement rate.