Simulation of Wheat Response to Future Climate Change Based on Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 Multi-Model Ensemble Projections in the North China Plain.

Huizi Bai,Jianzhao Tang,De Li Liu,Bin Wang,Dengpan Xiao

doi:10.3389/fpls.2022.829580

Abstract

Global climate change results in more extreme temperature events, which poses a serious threat to wheat production in the North China Plain (NCP). Assessing the potential impact of temperature extremes on crop growth and yield is an important prerequisite for exploring crop adaptation measures to deal with changing climate. In this study, we evaluated the effects of heat and frost stress during wheat sensitive period on grain yield at four representative sites over the NCP using Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM)-wheat model driven by the climate projections from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) during two future periods of 2031–2060 (2040S) and 2071–2100 (2080S) under societal development pathway (SSP) 245 and SSP585 scenarios. We found that extreme temperature stress had significantly negative impacts on wheat yield. However, increased rainfall and the elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration could partly compensate for the yield loss caused by extreme temperature events. Under future climate scenarios, the risk of exposure to heat stress around flowering had no great change but frost risk in spring increased slightly mainly due to warming climate accelerating wheat development and advancing the flowering time to a cooler period of growing season. Wheat yield loss caused by heat and frost stress increased by −0.6 to 4.2 and 1.9–12.8% under SSP585_2080S, respectively. We also found that late sowing and selecting cultivars with a long vegetative growth phase (VGP) could significantly compensate for the negative impact of extreme temperature on wheat yields in the south of NCP. However, selecting heat resistant cultivars in the north NCP and both heat and frost resistant cultivars in the central NCP may be a more effective way to alleviate the negative effect of extreme temperature on wheat yields. Our findings showed that not only heat risk should be concerned under climate warming, but also frost risk should not be ignored.

Highlights

Climate change, as one of the most important factors that determine crop yield, could explain 30–50% of global yield variability (Ray et al, 2015; Rezaei et al, 2018)
We aim to assess the impacts of future climate change mainly including heat and frost stress on wheat yield in the North China Plain (NCP) using the Agricultural Production System Simulator (APSIM) model forced by statistically downscaled daily climate data from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)
We investigated the wheat yield performance of historical cultivar (HC) and three virtual cultivars [thermal time in the vegetative growth phase (VGP) of HC increased by 10%, VC1; thermal time in the reproductive growth phase (RGP) of HC increased by 10%, VC2; thermal time in both the vegetative and RGPs of HC increased by 10%, VC3] for each station under future climate scenarios without and with the effect of extreme stress

Summary

Introduction

As one of the most important factors that determine crop yield, could explain 30–50% of global yield variability (Ray et al, 2015; Rezaei et al, 2018). The intensity, frequency, and duration of extreme climate events are increasing, which can exacerbate the instability of agricultural production systems (Zheng et al, 2012; Chen et al, 2018). Predicting the potential impact of future climate change and climate extreme on agricultural production is crucial for developing adaptation strategies to reduce climate risks (Chen et al, 2018). China is currently the largest wheat-producing country in the world, accounting for more than 17.6% of the global wheat production (FAO, 2013). Ensuring wheat production in the NCP is for food security in China and for the stability and sustainability of the global food market. Wheat production will be threatened by the increased extreme climate events. For every unit increase of the sum of daily heat degrees over 30°C during anthesis and grain filling, grain yield was reduced by 1.0–1.6% (Liu et al, 2016)

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