Simulation of weather systems over Indian region using mesoscale models

Abstract

Simulation studies have been carried out for two weather systems namely; a pre-monsoon thunderstorm over east coast of India and a weak cyclonic circulation associated with feeble low pressure area over south peninsular India. Two sets of forecast results are obtained: one using Advanced Regional Prediction System Model and other using Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The model performances are compared by examining the predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure, wind, moisture fields and rainfall. The rainfall prediction is assessed qualitatively by comparing the spatial distribution with satellite cloud images and quantitatively by comparing rainfall rates with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission products and/or the observed station values reported in Indian Daily Weather Reports. It is found that in case of idealized simulation of thunderstorm, Advanced Regional Prediction System Model has well predicted the spatial distribution of rainfall which is consistent with the clouding in satellite cloud images. It also has simulated the diverging winds at lower levels associated with downdraft during mature/dissipation stage of thunderstorm. Weather Research and Forecasting Model failed to predict these features. In case of a weak cyclonic circulation simulation experiment, Advanced Regional Prediction System model is able to simulate the rainy area better compared to those produced by Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Both models failed to produce observed heavy precipitation rates.