Simulation of water waves generated by a potential debris avalanche in Montserrat, Lesser Antilles

Abstract

The evolution of the volcano activity in Montserrat could lead to the collapse of a portion of the lava dome in the Tar River Valley and to a sudden entry of debris avalanche into the Caribbean Sea. The impact of a debris avalanche with a volume of 40 × 106 m³ into the sea and the generated tsunami have been simulated numerically by a mixture model solving the 3D Euler's equations. The mixture is composed of sediments considered as an homogeneous fluid of density 2 and of water. Numerical tests show that the generated waves are sensitive to both initial impact velocities and avalanche fronts of the landslide. The water surface and velocities calculated by the 3D mixture model are used as input data in a non‐linear shallow water model, to calculate tsunami propagation along the coasts of Montserrat. The hydraulic risks in Montserrat are roughly assessed for a tsunami generated by a mass of 40 × 106 m³ entering the sea.