Simulation of water quality with the application of system dynamics model for population and land-use changes

Abstract

Water quality is degraded due to urbanization because it causes population growth and land-use changes in a watershed. These changes are usually simulated using a linear equation; however, in reality, population and land use are very closely related. A watershed system dynamics model (WSD model) was developed in the simulation of the relation among population, land use (paddy fields, upland fields, forest, and household), and runoff. The model comprised of three sectors: the agricultural sector, nature sector, and urban sector. The elements in the WSD model were selected based on interviews with local government officers and references. The WSD model simulated population, land use, and runoff with an average relative error of about 5%. Total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P) were simulated using the results of the WSD model and unit effluent loads. Field surveys were conducted to determine the rate of mitigation in paddy fields. In addition, correction equations for runoff and phosphate-containing detergent were introduced. The model simulated T-N with an average relative error of 9%, and T-P with 27%; a sensitivity analysis for the principal elements in the WSD model showed reasonable results.