SIMULATION OF URBAN GROWTH: A CASE STUDY FOR CURITIBA CITY, BRAZIL

Eliana Vieira De Freitas,Hideo Araki

doi:10.1590/s1982-21702021000s00019

Eliana Vieira De Freitas, Hideo Araki

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1590/s1982-21702021000s00019

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Abstract

The present work seeks to model the simulation of the landscape of the city of Curitiba, through the use of cellular automata (CA) algorithms, together with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Remote Sensing tools. Four models were elaborated, having as input data classified images from the years 2006, 2009, 2011 and 2014; and different time intervals between the initial and final landscape of the models. Geographic data of the city were also used, as well as the current legislation of the municipality, and such data contributed to the robustness of the modelling. Two validation tests were applied to verify the adequacy of the simulated models concerning the observed reality. The validation performed by the Multiple Resolutions Adjustment method indicated that the model elaborated with data from 2009 and 2011 reached the highest similarity index, being equal to 0.88. Thus, it was possible to carry out geosimulations and these indicated that, as long as the trends observed in the past are maintained, the urban expansion of the municipality will occur at the expense of vegetation.

Highlights

The accelerated urbanization process seen in recent decades has resulted in the concentration of 54% of the world population in urban areas, in contrast to only 33% in 1950; and it is estimated that the proportion of the urban population will reach 66% in 2050 (United Nations 2019)
The study had as objectives: i) define static variables that model changes in land use and land cover; ii) analyze whether the static variables are dependent or independent; iii) perform tests with different input data, in order to arrive at the best landscape simulation model; iv) perform model validation using two different methods, fuzzy similarity and adjustment by multiple resolutions; e v) perform geosimulations in the city of Curitiba
Static variables were selected to model changes in the landscape over time, and in order for them to exercise their functions, the independence between them was verified through the use of two different indicators (Cramer Index and Uncertainty of Joint Information)

Summary

Introduction

The accelerated urbanization process seen in recent decades has resulted in the concentration of 54% of the world population in urban areas, in contrast to only 33% in 1950; and it is estimated that the proportion of the urban population will reach 66% in 2050 (United Nations 2019). Curitiba is the eighth most populous city in the country and, according to IBGE 2019 data, the population increase was 0.83%, higher than the national average, which was equals to 0.79% (Agência IBGE 2019). There is a variety of models developed to represent the dynamic nature of urban growth considering cells, agents, neural networks, fractal geometry, among others (Bhatta, 2010). Among the models developed to represent the dynamic nature of urban growth, we highlight those that use cellular automata (CA) which form two-dimensional cell lattices

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