Simulation of the spatiotemporal aspects of land erodibility in the northeast Lake Eyre Basin, Australia, 1980–2006

Abstract

This paper explores spatiotemporal patterns in land erodibility in the northeast portion of the Lake Eyre Basin, Australia, using the Australian Land Erodibility Model (AUSLEM) in simulations from 1980 to 2006. First, spatial patterns in land erodibility are examined. We then present an analysis of seasonal and interannual variations in land erodibility. Patterns in land erodibility change are compared to rainfall variability, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific (inter‐) Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Land erodibility is found to peak in the study area between early spring (September, October, November) and late summer (January, February, March), and reach a minimum over winter (June, July, August). Weak correlations are found between modeled land erodibility, rainfall, ENSO, and the PDO. The results indicate a complex landscape response to climate variability, with land erodibility dynamics being affected by antecedent rainfall and vegetation conditions which generate lag responses in land erodibility change. The research highlights the importance of developing methods for monitoring conditions driving variations in wind erosion at the landscape scale to enhance land management policy in arid and semiarid landscapes at a time of uncertain future climate changes.