Simulation of the potential impact of urban expansion on regional ecological corridors: A case study of Taiyuan, China

Abstract

• We found suitable location for potential corridors by adopting high resolution spatial data. • We predicted the expansion of urban built-up area in Taiyuan from 2015 to 2035. • The impact of urban expansion on regional ecological corridors has been analyzed. • We identified the corridors that should be enhanced for conservation and restoration. • Our results can provide planners insightful suggestions for spatial planning. Urbanization caused by intensive land-use change is the main driving force of environment degradation. The development and protection of ecological corridors to connect green natural features has been recognized as an effective means for improving the resilience of cities. It is especially important for the cities which are in the rapid urbanizing process. In this paper, we used high-resolution spatial data to extract the distribution of ecological corridors by using the Least Cost Path model for the city of Taiyuan, China. Then, a prediction of the urban area for the year 2035 was achieved by using the SLEUTH model. Finally, we analyzed the negative impact of urban expansion on the corridors under current urbanization trends. Our results show that the regional corridors are mostly distributed in the western mountainous area, connecting large natural areas. There are also three ecological corridors crossing the city from the east to west. According to our prediction, Taiyuan will mainly grow southward along the urban edge and road network. As a result, two ecological corridors in the central and southern parts of Taiyuan will be largely occupied, especially the corridors in Xiaodian district which account for 72.51% of the total occupied corridor area. To avoid further conflict, the urbanization intensity along the sides of the corridors should be restricted to maintain corridors of a certain width. Our research findings can provide urban planners insightful suggestions for conservation and restoration of ecological networks and assist in spatial planning.