Simulation of the Ozone Concentration in Three Regions of Xinjiang, China, Using a Genetic Algorithm-Optimized BP Neural Network Model

Abstract

Accurate ozone concentration simulation can provide a health reference for people’s daily lives. Simulating ozone concentrations is a complex task because near-surface ozone production is determined by a combination of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NOx emissions, atmospheric photochemical reactions, and meteorological factors. In this study, we applied a genetic algorithm-optimized back propagation (GA-BP) neural network, multiple linear regression (MLR), BP neural network, random forest (RF) algorithm, and long short-term memory network (LSTM) to model ozone concentrations in three regions of Xinjiang, China (Urumqi, Hotan, and Dushanzi districts) for the first time by inputting wind speed, humidity, visibility, temperature, and wind direction. The results showed that the average relative errors of the model simulations in the Urumqi, Hotan, and Dushanzi districts were BP (61%, 14%, and 16%), MLR (97%, 14%, and 23%), RF (39%, 11%, and 14%), LSTM (50%, 12%, and 16%), and GA-BP (16%, 4%, and 6%) and that the significance coefficients R2 were BP (0.73, 0.65, and 0.83), MLR (0.68, 0.62, and 0.74), RF (0.85, 0.80, and 0.88), LSTM (0.78, 0.74, and 0.85), and GA-BP (0.92, 0.93, and 0.94), respectively, with the simulated values of GA-BP being the closest to the true values. The GA-BP model results showed that among the 100 samples with the same wind speed, humidity, visibility, temperature, and wind direction data, the highest simulated ozone concentrations in the Urumqi, Hotan, and Dushanzi districts were 173.5 μg/m3, 114.3 μg/m3, and 228.4 μg/m3, respectively. The results provide a theoretical basis for the effective control of regional ozone pollution in urban areas (Urumqi), dusty areas (Hotan), and industrial areas (Dushanzi) in Xinjiang.