Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco using the SIR Model.

Ousama Ifguis,Zeroual Abdellah,Mohamed El Ghozlani,Fouzia Ammou,Abdelaziz Moutcine

doi:10.1155/2020/9769267

Ousama Ifguis, Zeroual Abdellah + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/9769267

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Abstract

Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.

Highlights

During Christmas 2019, COVID-19 caused an epidemic in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province of China [1]
In the SIR model, compartment S refers to the sensitive population in Morocco, I refers to the infectious population, and R refers to confirmed cases [5]
To solve the ordinary differential equation of the SIR model (equations (1)–(3)), we must first simulate the daily data of the SIR model, compare them with the real data, and execute the optimization algorithm, so that it searches for the values of α and β, which minimize the difference between the real data and the simulated ones

Summary

Introduction

During Christmas 2019, COVID-19 caused an epidemic in the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province of China [1]. As the number of infected cases is increasing, it is necessary for modellers to estimate the severity of the epidemic in terms of the total number of people infected, the total number of confirmed cases, the total number of deaths, and basic reproduction and to predict the duration of the epidemic, the arrival of its peak, and its final size. This information can help public health agencies make informed decisions. We were able to determine the detailed results of the SIR model calibration and the predictions of our model, including the distribution of the peak period, the prediction interval of future confirmed cases, and the total number of infected persons

The SIR Model

Simulation with COVID-19 Data in Morocco

Results

Conclusion