Abstract
Model-based evaluation of major accident consequences and effects occurring during the transport of dangerous substances presents a great interest, because it allows derivation of relevant conclusions on the cause-effect close relationship. Such a numerical (in-silico) analysis helps to improve safety regulations for the transport of hazardous substances aimed at preventing dramatic accidents causing many deaths, injuries, and structural damage. By using the standard TNT equivalency math model, coupled with the Probit functions technique, the consequences and effects of an accidental blast have been<br /> estimated.1,2 The approached case study here refers to the accidental explosion of a truck while transporting 20 t of ammonium nitrate (AN) in the proximity of MihDileEti village<br /> (Romania) on 24 May 2004. The model-based simulated accident consequences and effects match the data taken on the spot after the accident. Multiple simulations lead to<br /> deriving relevant conclusions of practiced value for improving the transport safety of hazardous substances.
Highlights
Ammonium nitrate (AN) is a substance of high interest due to its multiple applications, being currently produced in large quantities on an industrial scale (6.61 million tonnes in 2018).[3]
It acts as a source of ammonia and nitrate ion vital to plants in the form of nitrogen fertilizer, in explosives and propellants, the nitrate ion is a source of oxygen and its application is as an oxidizer
This study presents an in-silico method for rapidly determining the blast consequences and effects in a reasonable prediction area around the location where a truck loaded with AN accidentally caught fire and exploded
Summary
Model-based evaluation of major accident consequences and effects occurring during the transport of dangerous substances presents a great interest, because it allows derivation of relevant conclusions on the cause-effect close relationship. Such a numerical (in-silico) analysis helps to improve safety regulations for the transport of hazardous substances aimed at preventing dramatic accidents causing many deaths, injuries, and structural damage. The model-based simulated accident consequences and effects match the data taken on the spot after the accident. Multiple simulations lead to deriving relevant conclusions of practiced value for improving the transport safety of hazardous substances
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