Abstract
This paper, the second in a series outlining development of a management information system for barley leaf rust in New Zealand, describes the structure and biological logic of the skeleton model BARSIM—I. Validation of biological system models is discussed and results of two statistical tests with BARSIM—I presented. Using a parametric (regression) technique, nine out of fifteen simulated epidemics were found to agree with field observations. With a non-parametric (Smirnov) test, model output was found in all instances to agree with field data. The relationship of simulation modelling to mathematical modelling of plant diseases is discussed.
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