Simulation of strong ground motion due to active Sohna fault in Delhi, National Capital Region (NCR) of India: an implication for imminent plausible seismic hazard

Abstract

Delhi, National Capital Region (NCR) of India, falls in the seismic Zone IV (Zone factor 0.24) on the seismic zoning map prepared by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS), and this region may experience devastating intensities in case of plausible moderate to the major earthquake in the vicinity. The strategic geological, geomorphological, and geographic characteristics make this seat of administrative power more vulnerable toward the earthquake disaster right from the ancient periods. Therefore, we study the impact of the M 6.0 earthquake sourced at Sohna fault in the neighborhood of the capital region by generating synthetic accelerograms through semiempirical envelop technique. The observed accelerograms of November 25, 2007 ( $$M_{w}$$ 4.7) earthquake have been modeled to utilize the reliability of the semiempirical approach. To analyze the actual scenario, the ground motions at the surface have been generated after the incorporation of the site effects because different soil conditions of NCR fascinate different degrees of damage in case of a destructive earthquake. As a result, the obtained peak ground acceleration (PGA) varies between 100 and 600 cm/s2, and some of the sites exhibit even higher PGA values being situated on the sediments of river-oriented plain areas and proximity of the source. The spatial distribution of estimated values of PGA and spectral accelerations at different periods show that sites in NCR like Delhi (600 cm/s2), Sonipat (633 cm/s2), Gurgaon (461 cm/s2), and Faridabad (300 cm/s2) exhibit high to severe seismic hazard in case of M 6.0 at Sohna fault and it is suggested that a population of about 4.78 million along with the infrastructure of this region is exposed to high risk. The estimated seismic exposure of the population is important to utilize the resources properly before the destructive earthquake incidence. The hazard maps for PGA and different structural periods in the NCR region reveal the level of seismic hazard and risk of the study region. These hazard maps are very helpful for administrators, stakeholders, and civil engineers to construct earthquake-resistant structures to minimize the risk generated by the future impending earthquakes. The exponential growth of the buildings, industries, businesses, etc., attracts the attention of urban area planners because of high seismic risk due to the damaging earthquakes, and its severity must be understood to save the life and property to mitigate the natural disaster like an earthquake by proper disaster mitigation plans, especially in the metropolitan cities like Delhi NCR.