Simulation of Storm Surge in Myanmar Coast

Abstract

Storm surge is one of the most severe disastrous hazards in the Southeast Asian region including Myanmar. In order to accurately and on time numerical prediction of a surge, it is a crucial task for disaster mitigation. The objective of the study is to examine the predicted storm surge heights sensitivity with varying water depth. Storm parameters considered in the study include pressure drops, radius of maximum wind and duration of the storm and landfall angles in the Myanmar coast. Traditional model for numerical prediction of the storm surge has some drawbacks such as a delayed intimation of expected storm surges. To overcome these shortcomings, this study used the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi (IIT-D)-based surge model to explore the various factors of a surge in Myanmar. The sensitivity results from the study demonstrate that the shallowness of the water depth and obtuse landfall angle in the Rakhine coast of Myanmar produce the highest surge height. It also shows that a fast-moving cyclone made a larger surge than slower one. The effects of wind stress forcing reveal that high-pressure drops and radius of maximum wind generate a larger surge. The peak surges are computed by the prediction model which compared to the observed values and found to be the most accuracy of the results. Thus, this surge model can provide an early (nearly 48 h) warming in the coastal regions of Myanmar. It can help to mitigate disaster from the consequences of storm surge in Myanmar by evacuating the local residents.