Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) propagation in 2019 posed serious threats and challenges to human public health and safety. Currently, COVID-19 is still not effectively controlled in certain countries and regions. This study combines the traditional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, system dynamics (SD) model, and cellular automata (CA) model to construct a spatiotemporal dynamics pandemic model (SDPM). The SDPM is used to dynamically depict the spatiotemporal diffusion and outbreak of COVID-19 through research on the relationship between epidemic spread and regional development. The results show that: (1) There is a positive correlation between regional development and epidemic spread. The more developed the regional economy, especially in areas with short-range population migration from Hubei Province, the more severe the epidemic spread; and (2) The spatial isolation and control measures adopted by the government can effectively prevent the COVID-19 spread. The results explore the relationship between COVID-19 spread and regional economic development by studying the spatial and temporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19, and provide a scientific reference for the government to formulate reasonable response measures.
Highlights
In December 2019, the first patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was diagnosed in Wuhan [1,2]
The values of the parameters were determined by references [28,29,30,31] and the law of historical data development
Based on the system dynamics (SD) model and the cellular automata (CA) model, the spatiotemporal dynamics pandemic model (SDPM) is proposed by extending the traditional SEIR model
Summary
In December 2019, the first patient with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was diagnosed in Wuhan [1,2]. Owing to the dual effects of the Spring Festival travel and Wuhan’s particular economic and geographical situation, COVID-19 spread rapidly to other provinces in China and certain other countries and regions around the world. As of 0:00 on 8 April 2020, a total of 81,802 cumulative confirmed cases, 77,279 cumulative cured cases, and 3333 cumulative deaths had been reported according to the records from 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps [5]. The cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 have far exceeded those due to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in 2003 [6]
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