Simulation of rice yield with resource conserving technologies for early, mid and end centuries under changing climatic conditions using DSSAT model

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa L.) is one of the major crop of India and the lifeline of the Eastern states. The challenges however are to produce more food for the increasing population by utilizing limited resources and maintain it under climate change conditions. This can be achieved by devising appropriate agro-techniques. We calibrated and evaluated CERES-Rice model of Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) for different resource conserving technologies (RCTs) to assess their effects on yield of transplanted rice under projected climate change scenarios. Yields were projected for 2030, 2050 and 2070 using data downloaded from MarkSim® DSSAT weather file generator for RCP 4.5 climate change scenario. The simulated result indicated that the productivity of transplanted rice under resource conserving technologies is likely to increase by 11.6-14.9% in 2030, 18.6-22.3% in 2050 and 17.6-20.2% in 2070 compared to the present yield levels (2015) with current management practices. Yield can further be enhanced through adoption of appropriate resource conservation technologies (RCTs). The DSSAT model predicted the effects of RCTs in transplanted rice very well and can be a useful tool for evaluating the effects of climate change on rice under these managements.