Simulation of Rabies Epizootic Process in Fox Populations at a Limited Carrying Capacity of Biotopes

Abstract

To describe the epizootic process of rabies in fox populations, a model based on a cellular automata network (Toffoli and Margolus, 1991) was constructed. The cell state and the rules of transition from one state to another were determined in accordance with a modification of the previous model based on a differential equation system, which was proposed to describe the epizootics of fox rabies in Western Europe. The new model provides the possibility of simulating spatial heterogeneity and indices of animal mobility related, in particular, to the seasonal features of fox ecology. Calculations were made using population parameters characteristic of biotopes with a low carrying capacity (the steppe zone of Western Siberia). According to the model, the maintenance of rabies epizootics in these biotopes is possible on condition that the mobility of foxes in them is much higher than in the biotopes with a high carrying capacity. This model can be used for prognosis and epidemiological control in natural rabies foci.