Simulation of petroleum exploration based on a conceptual decision model: Taking the Dezful Embayment in southwestern Iran as an example

Abstract

Abstract A conceptual decision model was designed to approximate the exploration of a petroleum basin in the Dezful Embayment, southwestern Iran. The model consists of four parts, namely, attribute creation, exploration simulation, decision analysis, and economic evaluation, and it is used to make exploration decisions according to Bayesian decision theory. With the oil and gas exploration in the Dezful Embayment as an example, the responses of oilfield geologic conditions to various exploration methods were obtained to create abnormal areas and reservoir distribution, and to simulate the exploration process of the basin. The simulation results prove that the model is accurate. The reservoirs in the study area are controlled by structural elements, so seismic data rather than surface and subsurface geologic maps should be used to figure out reservoir scale and targets.